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The MCOL Blog

• The Great Recession: as seen by Health Plan Executives
  

  by Clive Riddle

  There have been a number of depressions in the American economy since the days of Alexander Hamilton. We only refer to one as the “Great Depression,” and it seems joined at the hip with an entire decade (the 1930’s.) There have been a wide number and range of recessions in American history. It’s hard to know how today this one will fully play out, but it feels different. Perhaps we’ll move on from calling our current situation the “Current Financial Crisis” and we’ll end up calling this the “Great Recession.”
  
  CSC yesterday released results from their November 2008 survey of 30 senior executives representing 26 health plans, with their report "Insuring the Future: Health Plans Respond to the Financial Crisis." Here’s what they found was going on in the minds of our health plan executives relating to whatever you want to call our economic mess; the following is a summary of the questions asked, survey results, and our comments:

  • “Compared to 2001 – 2002, how will the current economic downturn impact your organization?” 73% answered “Bigger Impact; 13% said “About the Same” and 13% answered “Smaller Impact”, “No Impact” or “No Opinion.” [so three-fourths might agree with calling this a Great Recession.]
  • “Which indicator does your organization use to predict and plan for the effects of overall economic changes?” 69% mentioned unemployment; 55% mentioned health care inflation; 31% mentioned investment performance and the answers tailed off from there [makes sense- employment drives membership, inflation drives the medical loss ration, and investment income is the difference between profit and a loss for many plans.]
  • “What is your organization’s response to the downturn?” 48% will implement cost-cutting projects; 41% will implement revenue enhancing projects; and14% will lay off staff. [Revenue enhancement is going to be a challenge in this economic climate if premium increases are what they have in mind. We would project a drastic reduction in negotiated premium increases, let alone benefit buy-downs that will reduce revenue.]
  • “How has the downturn affected demand for your products?” Regarding enrollment, 48% anticipate an increase in individual product enrollment vs. 10% projecting a decrease; while 45% predict a decrease in group sales compared to 7% projecting an increase [what are these 7% smoking, or maybe they just think their going to steal away competitors market share?]; and 69% project an increase in government program enrollment compared to 14% predicting a decrease. Relating to employer group renewals, 54% anticipate a decrease in small business renewals, and 31% project decreases in large group renewals [so the small group market will make significant cuts in providing coverage or eligibility, driving the individual and government program increases, and the group market will continue to diminish in size as it has this throughout this decade.]
  • Also regarding the demand for product type, 67% see an increase in demand for Consumer Driven plans compared to 5% anticipating a decrease, compared to 29% increase/24% decrease for PPOs and 43% increase/14% decrease for HMOs. [So consumer driven plans, which many pundits have seen as an endangered species with the new Democratic administration and congress may still have some legs due to the impact of this recession, and HMOs may make a comeback from the managed care backlash starting ten years ago, as a stronger tool to stabilize costs.]
  • “How will the economic downturn affect other business partners?” 73% anticipate cashflow/solvency problems with provider networks, and 54% predict network stability problems relating to access and availability. [As provider networks serve multiple plans, you can have a reverse supply chain problem compared to the auto industry. With autos, a collapse of the manufacturers can bring down the supply chain. Here a collapse of the provider network supply chain could wreak havoc with the health plans.]

  Of course, how one sees the economic situation depends upon one’s personal stake and position at the time. The joke goes, a definition of a recession is when you lose your job. The definition of a depression is when I lose my job.

• Personal Health Records: The Hot Consumerism Tool
  

  By Lindsay Resnick

  Consumer Directed Healthcare (CDH) is past the tipping point. Employers, employees, payers and providers have embraced these free market style health benefit plans that put consumers in the center of deciding where, when, and from whom they receive care---the customer now has more skin in the game. CDH success means changing the way people think about and deal with their healthcare choices. It takes practical decision support tools, credible information and increased connectivity throughout the healthcare system. Now, the newest consumer trend is allowing individuals and families to maintain their own online health records.
  Personal Health Records (PHRs) enable consumers to have easy access to their health history and clinical make-up in order to manage benefit and medical decisions. It gives consumers more knowledge and control over their health information. In essence, it creates a smarter, better informed healthcare customer. PHRs allow an individual to enter and record personal medical information such as medical history, prescriptions, examination results, office visit tracking and, lab and diagnostic test results. Based on PHR functionality, consumers can input or scan images, charts, graphs, and print reports.
  The result is a PHR that provides an accurate, up-to-date summary of a person’s health status and medical history. The information is secured online and only accessible by the individual or, medical professionals with approved authorization, at the PHR owner’s discretion. In addition to a standalone, consumer-driven PHR, other models are emerging that take a more integrated approach allowing information to be input through other, secure sources such as physicians, pharmacists, home care and even linked-in claims data.
  In a predominately paper-driven medical record world, online PHRs bring the portability and connectivity that make reliable information available, quickly. The result can be lifesaving in emergency situations, help avoid harmful medication interactions, reduce unnecessary tests and properly prepare consumers with the context to ask the “right” questions. Most importantly, PHRs give consumers the control they need to make informed, confident decisions.
  Internet-based Personal Health Records are rapidly emerging. In a State of the Union address, the President called for every American to have one in ten years. This year, Microsoft launched HealthVault and, Google Health is testing its own PHR. It is estimated that there are more than 200 PHR products available in the market with a wide range of functionality, level of integration and “cool” features.
  With consumers well on the way to being the centerpiece in the future of healthcare benefit and medical decision-making, PHRs will continue to grow in popularity and acceptance. A recent Markle Foundation survey shows that almost 80% of the public believes PHRs would provide significant benefits to individuals in managing their health, although many (57%) express concern over privacy and security of their information. PHRs are here to stay. They represent another step in healthcare’s technological movement built around content, community, commerce and connectivity.
  

• Easy Answers Make Poor Gifts
  

  By Laurie Gelb

  A new political era is upon us, and the red herrings that should be frolicking in the wild somehow never left the boardroom.

  You’ve heard them all. Members are lazy slugs. Docs are mercenaries with stethoscopes. Pharmas suck the last dollar out of destitute Part D recipients. Often, the pharmacy chains come out best in this narrative – their low generic pricing is actually both market-driven and good for adherence. But improved outcomes are unlikely to be driven in large part by CVS or Walgreens in the current regulatory environment. So what’s next?
  
  Recently, I’ve explored scores of managed care and health system Web sites as a strategist and competition judge. As I’ve pointed and clicked across this year’s domains of top-tier AMCs and health plans, I’ve reflected on my MCOL presentations of the last few years.
  
  Many of us preach the need for customized decision support that validates the complexity and importance of stakeholder choices. Yet the health Web on evidence in 2008 continues to propagate the false dichotomies of idiot vs. expert, with information accessible through clunky largely static pages, with only the most rudimentary support for critical decisions like choosing a physician or evaluating the urgency [often confused with indications]